Poroshenko’s inauguration speech has sent a message to Novorossiia and Russia:
• No federalization
• No state status for the Russian language
• No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
• Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
• Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine.
He could not have been any clearer: that is basically a declaration of war and an ultimatum. This is also a full endorsement of the “Banderastan project”.
Clearly, the US has prevailed over the hoplessly spineless EU leaders like Merkel or Hollande and the AngloZionists will have their way.
Source: The Vineyard of the Saker
How Long Can the Kremlin Resist Military Intervention?
While I fully understand what the Kremlin is doing (denying the US the kind of “enemy” it wants) and while I fully support that goal, I am also aware that this policy cannot be sustained much longer and that something will have to happen soon, very soon. Right now, my personal hunch, my guesstimate, is that the US will over-rule the EU and that Poroshenko will not only continue, but even escalate the junta’s terror operations in the east and southeast. If that is indeed what happens, Russia will intervene, there is, alas, no doubt in my mind at all. How?
What a Russian military intervention might look like
Russia might pretend try to get a UNSC resolution supporting a peacemaking operation of the CSTO in the Ukraine, if only just to make sure that all legal options have been exhausted. Then I would expect to see a no-fly zone declared over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, combined with the opening, by force if needed (it will), of humanitarian corridors towards these regions. At this point I expect the Ukie junta to fold and run, but if some units do not, they will be destroyed. The purely military phase of this intervention will take no more than 24 hours and will more or less stop at the administrative border between the Lugansk and Donetsk regions and the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie regions. If directly threatened, of course, Russian forces could strike deeper inside the rest of the Ukraine, targeting missile/artillery positions or enemy airpower (in the air or on the ground). At this point I would expect some EU leader to do what Sakozy did in 08.08.08 and travel to Moscow to agree to a ceasefire which Moscow would accept. Once the situation in the Donbass is more or less stabilized, I would expect Russia to pull out most of Russian forces, probably “forgetting a few “goodies” here and there, not unlike what happened in South Ossetia. Finally, and especially if the EU continues to allow the US to imposed its insane and counter-productive foreign policy (or what passes for it) on Europe, I would expect Russia to recognize the People’s Republic of Novorossia and provide it with security guarantees (again, the model of Ossetia and Abkhazia applies).
Again, I would prefer if a solution could be found without an overt Russian military intervention, but obviously that does not depend on me. The Americans are stuck, they have failed at everything, and they have no other choice than to engage in a idiotic media campaign to convince the world that “Putin has blinked” and that “Obama is a tough President”. This is quite ridiculous, of course, as this is not about a John Wayne style “blinking exercise” but about the future of the European continent. But the European politicians are so corrupt, so spineless, so mediocre and so incompetent (remember how Boris Johnson, Mayor of London called some of them “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”?) that they will probably let the Americans decide the future or Europe for them.
I hope that I am wrong, but chances are that a Russian military intervention will happen in the not too distant future.
Source: The Vineyard of the Saker